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If you’ve just recorded a song and you’re wondering if it’s going to be a hit, you might want to contact a group of scientists in England.
Based in the University of Bristol’s Intelligent Systems Laboratory, the team claims it has developed a formula that can predict whether your tune will hit or miss.

Their paper, to be presented at an international workshop next week, argues that state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms powers their prediction.

The group says it looked at the official UK top 40 singles chart over the past 50 years to distinguish the most popular songs from less popular singles.

It factored in features such as, tempo, time signature, song duration and loudness, and computed more detailed summaries of the songs such as harmonic simplicity – how simple the chord sequence is – and non-harmonicity – how ‘noisy’ the song is.

The researchers say “a hit potential equation that scores a song according to its audio features was devised.

“The equation works by looking at all the UK hits for a certain time and measuring their audio features,” they said in a statement.
From this, the group had a list of weights, telling then how important each of the 23 features was and allowing them to compute a score for a song.

The scientists say they found they could classify a song into a ‘hit’ or ‘not hit’ based on its score, with an accuracy rate of 60% as to whether a song will make it to top five or if it will never reach above position 30 on the UK top 40 singles chart.

“Musical tastes evolve, which means our ‘hit potential equation’ needs to evolve as well. Indeed, we have found the hit potential of a song depends on the era. This may be due to the varying dominant music style, culture and environment,” Dr Tijl De Bie, the study’s lead author said.

The research revealed some interesting trends.

They say that “before the eighties, the dance-ability of a song was not very relevant to its hit potential. From then on, danceable songs were more likely to become a hit. Also the average dance-ability of all songs on the charts suddenly increased in the late seventies.”
The team also concluded that in the eighties, ballads were more likely to become a hit, the late seventies and early eighties were particularly creative periods of pop music, and that on average, all songs on the chart are becoming louder.